DevRam

Sensex 0DTE, 16-07: Same Structure, Smaller Day

A desk setup with multiple computer monitors
Photo by TRIANGLEMZ on Unsplash

Sensex 0DTE, 16-07: Same Structure, Smaller Day

Third in the 0DTE series. Same hedged ratio straddle as the original write-up, same instrument as the 9th, one week apart.

Profit: ₹3,744.

Also the day my Sensex weekly condor was due to expire — that one came off on the 15th at target, and is written up separately. Two structures on the same underlying, one expiring and one being opened, is a concentration point I did not think about at the time and probably should have.

The trade

Pivot moved up to 77,400 this week.

Leg Strike Action Lots Price
Call 77,400 CE Buy 1 148.65
Put 77,400 PE Buy 1 197.95
Put 77,000 PE Sell 3 59.90
Call 77,700 CE Sell 3 51.95

Two hundred and twenty-one rupees of cash at risk. That is the number that would have gone if Sensex had pinned exactly on 77,400 at settlement.

The tent

Settlement Result
76,805.52 breakeven (lower)
77,000 (short put strike) peak: +388.95 pts → ₹7,779
77,400 (long strikes) worst inside the tent: −₹221
77,700 (short call strike) peak: +288.95 pts → ₹5,779
77,844.48 breakeven (upper)

Profit band: 76,806 → 77,844, about 1,039 points, roughly 1.3% of the index. Narrower than the 1,291-point band on the 9th, which is exactly what you would expect — cheaper options mean a smaller straddle, which means the tent shrinks.

Beyond either breakeven the same uncapped 2× tail as always. I keep writing that sentence and it keeps being the most important sentence in these posts.

The result

₹3,744 across 20 is 187.20 points, which puts the index about 198 points from the 77,400 pivot when I came off — 77,598 up or 77,202 down, identical on this payoff.

That is 65% of the call-side peak and 48% of the put side.

The number that is actually interesting

Line up the three trades by how far the index actually travelled, in percentage terms, because that is what this structure is buying:

Date Index Move captured As % of index Net debit Profit
09-07 Sensex ~334 pts 0.43% ₹1,188 ₹5,501
14-07 Nifty ~60 pts 0.25% ₹0 ₹4,472
16-07 Sensex ~198 pts 0.26% ₹221 ₹3,744

Two things are falling together. The cost of the straddle is falling — 59.39 points of net debit, then 0.00, then 11.05 — because volatility has been draining out of the market since the 8th. And the realised range is falling with it, from 0.43% to about a quarter of a percent.

That is not a coincidence, it is the same fact seen twice. Implied volatility going down is the market's forecast that the daily range will shrink, and so far the market has been right.

The structure is fine with this. It gets cheaper to build at the same time as it has less room to work with, so the two effects partially cancel — which is why the P&L is falling gently rather than falling off a cliff. But the direction of travel is unambiguous: ₹5,501, then ₹4,472, then ₹3,744. Each trade has made less than the one before it.

If implied volatility keeps compressing, the tent gets narrower and the moves get smaller, and at some point the arithmetic stops working. I would like to know in advance where that point is rather than discovering it three losing expiries from now.

The skew, again

Third trade, third time the short put sits further from the pivot than the short call: 400 points below against 300 above. Same as the 500/400 on the 9th and the 150/100 in Nifty.

The put side is consistently richer, so balancing the credit against the straddle pushes the put strike out, and the tent ends up leaning downward — more room below the pivot, a higher peak below the pivot. Every single trade in this series has been quietly long a fall.

I have now noted this three times without doing anything about it. Noting a bias repeatedly is not the same as managing one. Either I accept the lean deliberately, in writing, with a reason — or I place the shorts at equal distance and let the credit come out unbalanced instead. What I should not keep doing is letting the option chain make a directional decision for me and calling it a neutral structure.

Where the series stands

Trade Result
Sensex 0DTE (09-07) +₹5,501
Nifty 0DTE (14-07) +₹4,472
Sensex 0DTE (16-07) +₹3,744
Series total +₹13,717

Three trades, three wins, three declining numbers, and still not one expiry where the index went somewhere it was not supposed to.


Disclaimer

This is a personal trading journal. It is a record of my own trades, my own money and my own mistakes — nothing more.

Nothing here is a trade recommendation, a tip, a call, or advice of any kind. I am not a registered adviser and I am not qualified to tell anyone what to do with their capital. The strikes, premiums, entries and exits above are what I did, not what you should do.

If you read this blog and place a trade because of it, that trade is yours. I accept no responsibility for anyone else's losses. Do your own research, size for your own risk, and understand that options can lose you more, faster, than you expect.