DevRam

BankNifty Monthly Condor, Cycle 3: The Target That Was Actually Hit

Close-up of a dartboard with a bullseye
Photo by Anastase Maragos on Unsplash

The condor that isn't retired — this is the other one

The Sensex weekly iron condor got retired on 01-08 after 11 months of backtest said the shape wasn't earning its keep. This is a different structure entirely: the BankNifty monthly iron condor, the combined-premium system that had its first documented cycle here — cycle 1 at −₹1,200, cycle 2 at +₹7,200, the latter closed early because expiry-week margin started climbing on me before I wanted it to. This is the next cycle, and it's the cleanest one yet.

The trade

Entered 29-07-2026 on the system's combined-premium signal: the month's ATM straddle closed below the prior day's close, so the condor went on — sell the 0.4-delta legs, buy the 0.2-delta legs for wings, on both sides.

Leg Strike Action Premium
Short put 56400 PE Sell 448.70
Long put (hedge) 55100 PE Buy 192.90
Short call 58500 CE Sell 382.15
Long call (hedge) 59600 CE Buy 146.85

BankNifty lot size is 30, 1 lot = 30 units.

The math

Metric Value
PE side credit 448.70 − 192.90 = 255.80/unit
CE side credit 382.15 − 146.85 = 235.30/unit
Total credit 491.10/unit × 30 = ₹14,733
Put wing width 1,300
Call wing width 1,100 (asymmetric — the condor isn't centred)
Max loss, put side (1,300 − 491.10) × 30 = ₹24,267
Max loss, call side (1,100 − 491.10) × 30 = ₹18,267
Breakevens 55908.90 – 58991.10
At deployment, payoff screen showed ≈₹14,800 max profit (close to the ₹14,733 computed here)

The exit that this time actually was mechanical

The system's rule, spelled out plainly after cycle 2's early close: take 50% of max profit, don't wait for expiry-week margin to force the decision. Fifty percent of ₹14,733 is ₹7,366.50. The trade was booked on 14-08-2026 — sixteen days in — at +₹7,400, a difference of about ₹34 against the target, which is fill slippage, not a missed rule.

That's the whole post, and it's almost boring to write, which is the point. Cycle 1 was a small loss. Cycle 2 was a bigger win closed under margin pressure rather than on the profit target itself — a good outcome, but one where the exit was reactive. This one hit the target and left on the target, sixteen days into what could have been a full month's hold, without any pressure forcing the decision early or a temptation to let it run further tempting me to override it late.

Why the asymmetric wings aren't a mistake

Worth flagging since it's easy to misread: the put wing is 1,300 points wide and the call wing is 1,100. That's not an error — it's the 0.2-delta wing landing wherever the market's actual skew puts it on entry day, and BankNifty's put-side skew was steeper than its call-side skew on 29-07, so the equal-delta wings ended up unequal in points. The two max-loss numbers above (₹24,267 vs ₹18,267) are the honest consequence of that: this condor was never risk-symmetric, even though it looks like one shape on a payoff chart. Worth remembering before assuming "iron condor" implies equal risk both ways — it doesn't, unless the wings are chosen in points rather than delta.

The thread this doesn't close

The open item from the first cycle post was writing the expiry-week margin horizon into the system before each month's first trade, so cycle 2's forced early exit doesn't repeat. This cycle didn't need that fix — it hit 50% with more than two weeks still on the clock, well clear of expiry-week margin territory. That's a lucky sequencing, not proof the fix has been made. The rule still needs to be written down explicitly rather than avoided by circumstance, because the next cycle that runs closer to expiry before hitting 50% will need it.


Disclaimer

This is a personal trading journal. It is a record of my own trades, my own money and my own mistakes — nothing more.

Nothing here is a trade recommendation, a tip, a call, or advice of any kind. I am not a registered adviser and I am not qualified to tell anyone what to do with their capital. The strikes, premiums, entries and exits above are what I did, not what you should do.

If you read this blog and place a trade because of it, that trade is yours. I accept no responsibility for anyone else's losses. Do your own research, size for your own risk, and understand that options can lose you more, faster, than you expect.