DevRam

Positional 125-EMA, Second Trade: Hedging Into an Iron Fly

A pink umbrella catching a sudden rain shower on a city street
Photo by Erik Witsoe on Unsplash

The second trade in the 125-minute EMA system

The first trade in this positional system was a straightforward bull put: 125-minute candle closes above the 9 EMA, sell a put priced 80–100, hedge it well below. That trade got booked early against a self-declared testing-phase target. This one didn't stay a simple bull put for its whole life — the market took it somewhere the written rules hadn't fully covered, and I had to decide what to do about that in real time.

Leg one: the system as written

On 06-08, the entry signal fired the normal way — 125-minute candle above the 9 EMA — and I sold a put, hedged below it, exactly per the rules.

Leg Strike Action Premium
Short put 24600 PE Sell 95.75
Long put (hedge) 24100 PE Buy 12.25

Nifty lot size is 65, 1 lot = 65 units.

Metric Value
Net credit (95.75 − 12.25) × 65 = ₹5,427.50
Spread width 500
Max loss (500 − 83.50) × 65 = ₹27,072.50
Breakeven 24600 − 83.50 = 24516.50

Standard bull put spread. Bullish thesis, defined risk, nothing unusual yet.

Leg two: the market disagreed, and the calendar didn't help

By 07-08 — a Friday, expiry the following Tuesday — the 125-min candle had closed back below the 9 EMA. The system's written rule for that is to exit. I didn't. With the weekend ahead and two full sessions of theta and gap risk sitting between me and Monday's open, I chose to hedge the existing bull put rather than close it, by selling the call side against it.

Leg Strike Action Premium
Short call 24600 CE Sell 105.50
Long call (hedge) 25100 CE Buy 6.85

Selling the 24600 CE against an existing 24600 PE — same strike on both shorts, with 500-point wings on both sides (24100 and 25100) — turns the position into a genuine Iron Fly, not an ad hoc patch. It's a real, nameable structure, which matters, because it means the deviation from the bull put system wasn't just "I didn't want to take the loss" — it was a decision to convert into a different, defined-risk structure rather than sit exposed and undefended into a weekend that the market had already told me was going the wrong way.

The combined position

Metric Value
Total credit (both spreads) 83.50 + 98.65 = 182.15/unit × 65 = ₹11,839.75
Max loss (either wing) (500 − 182.15) × 65 = ₹20,660.25
Breakevens 24417.85 – 24782.15

Naming the deviation, not laundering it

This journal's rule is to call a broken rule a broken rule, not dress it up as an adaptation. So: the 125-minute EMA system says exit on a close back below the EMA. I didn't exit. I hedged instead. I want to be honest about why that's defensible and why it's still worth flagging.

It's defensible because it wasn't a rule violated for no reason — it converted an exposed, one-directional position into a symmetric, capped-risk one before two non-trading sessions I couldn't react to intraday. It's still a deviation because "hedge instead of exit" isn't in the system as written, and a system I quietly patch under pressure isn't really being tested — a different system is. If this pattern (EMA flips against me, weekend or event risk ahead, so I convert to a fly instead of exiting) is something I want to keep doing, it needs to become an explicit branch of the rule, not a one-off judgment call that happened to work this time.

The exit

Both spreads shared the same 11-08 expiry. The market went sideways on 10-08 — Monday — which is exactly what an Iron Fly wants once it's on: the underlying pinned near the short strikes, both sides bleeding premium together. I booked the position that day, one day ahead of expiry.

Metric Value
Result +₹2,400
% of total credit ≈20.3%
Points of combined premium decayed ≈36.9

What I take from this one

The bull put leg followed the system. The call leg didn't — it was a discretionary hedge dressed as risk management, and it happened to convert into a clean, symmetric structure instead of an improvised mess, which is the only reason I'm not writing a "the stop I wrote down and didn't use" post right now. The lucky part is that "hedge into a fly ahead of the weekend when the EMA flips" turned out to be a coherent idea. The unlucky part, if I don't fix it, is that I now have a live example of discretion paying off inside a system I built specifically to remove discretion — and a payoff is exactly the condition under which a bad habit gets reinforced instead of corrected. Before the next EMA flip, this branch gets a written rule, or it goes back to being a plain exit.


Disclaimer

This is a personal trading journal. It is a record of my own trades, my own money and my own mistakes — nothing more.

Nothing here is a trade recommendation, a tip, a call, or advice of any kind. I am not a registered adviser and I am not qualified to tell anyone what to do with their capital. The strikes, premiums, entries and exits above are what I did, not what you should do.

If you read this blog and place a trade because of it, that trade is yours. I accept no responsibility for anyone else's losses. Do your own research, size for your own risk, and understand that options can lose you more, faster, than you expect.